Wednesday, April 26, 2017| 11:20 a.m.-1:00 p.m. | The Summit Club, 30th Floor, Banquet Room
James E. Schiefer, PetroDE
Topic: "Using Quintile Regression in a (Dynamic Geospatial Environment) to Predict More Accurate EUR Fast, Easy, Consistently"

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Today EURs are most commonly estimated based on a single well at a time. In some cases automated approaches are used, but the accuracy is often questioned, thus resulting in low usage. By using large numbers of wells at a time, however, statistical guidance can be used to provide ensemble estimations of EUR. In addition, estimates of P90, P50, and P10 EURs can be computed as well as estimates of production efficiency. Using this approach, PetroDE can analyze an area of interest at the click of the button, saving the user invaluable time.

There are four Decline Projection curves generated to illustrate the result:

  1. Mean - The average daily production rate for each month
  2. P10 - The value where 10 percent of the wells in that month produced at a higher rate than this value
  3. P50 - The median of a distribution, such that 50 percent of the wells produced at a higher rate, and 50 percent produced at a lesser rate than this value
  4. P90 - The value where 90 percent of the wells produce at a greater rate than this value

These decline curves provide a tool that can quickly, accurately and consistently calculate decline projection curves for an area of interest or an entire formation. By using a set of wells (maximum of 10,000) together in an appropriate statistical way, a better estimate can be made. This highly repeatable process of aggregating all wells at once instead of analyzing one well at a time lessens the effect of outlying wells, while not completely discounting their contribution.

James E. Schiefer
My Energy focus has been to create Technology and Data that significantly improves an Individual's, a Team's, a Company's business processes resulting in Faster, Better-Informed Decisions. 

In 2014 I invested in PetroDE to bring this unique productivity/data enhancement technology to the Energy Sector. PetroDE's patented Cloud technology helps any size company work more efficiently. 

In the 90s, I co-founded Interpretive Imaging/A2D (invented depth-calibrated logs, smartRASTER Technology). TGS-NOPEC acquired the smartRASTER technology (logs) and GeoGraphix owns SmartSECTION (application).

In the 80s, I focused on enhancing well log data by improving data capture, conversion, utilization and storage Technologies - Paper to Fiche to TIFF to smartRASTER to LAS  (LogSCAN) to storage.